Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Let me extrapolate

jeffrey has left a new comment on your post "Ok, Ok...what about the Fed?":

I don't understand. Are you talking about a Hurricane evacuation plan? Because I guess we're just going with what we've been going with in that regard. What is it about the spill that should make the process any different?

 Ok, here are some questions off the top of my head:

1. In the event of a hurricane which drives a high tidal surge that could affect a VERY large swath of coastal real estate, how does that affect us?  We could be looking at a toxic tidal surge...what happens now? 

2.  Under that scenario, if there are massive areas which will be evacuated, have they planned for that in terms of evacuation routes?  What if they require an evacuation from Pensacola to New Orleans?  If they don't make that decision well ahead of time...can you imagine the cluster fuck we're going to see occur on southern interstates?

3.  Are they taking that clusterfuck scenario into account when they pull the trigger on evacuation plans?  Does that mean the decision to evacuate will be on a hair trigger, or will they be much more conservative in their decision to pull the trigger?

4.  If we are hit with even a minor hurricane and we get hit with toxic sludge, even in a minor way (Allah forbid it pushes it's way into Pontchartrain or even into our water supply in the Mississippi) how is that going to affect the length of time in which we are allowed to come back into the city?  Are we looking at a potential "indefinite" evacuation?

If that's the case, they should tell us that is a possibility now, so we can plan on it.

If I'm running a business, and I am evacuated thinking I'm going to get right back into the city after the threat....I need to be told that you may end up in a Katrina situation and not be able to get back into the city for months.

While New Orleanians are more aware of that possibility, I doubt Mobile, Pensacola, Tampa,  considered that reality.

My overall point is that the fear mongering on hurricane + oil, is only going to build and build....i.e., the Huff & Puff Post is building the doomsday scenarios on a daily basis.

Everyone seems to be focusing on plugging the well....I hope that happens soon, but that's completely in BP's hands.

Evacuation plans are in our government's hands.  Let' s hope they have a plan.


Anonymous said...

Ummm.. Your water supply is from the Mississippi?

Chicago reversed their river to divert all their pollution down the Mississippi River so that it would not pollute their water supply in the Great Lake. And now every state between here and there adds to that pollution.

You should probably think about filtering that water out in some wetlands or something .

Anonymous said...

To be fair to BP, how often do we see hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico? It's a mistake that any Fortune 500 company with record profits and unlimited political connections could make.

Seriously, the next question and better question should be, which companies currently still drilling out there have this in their plans?

If there are any, Lets give them all the leases.

Anonymous said...

Hurricanes like to suck up large swaths of water as they move along, the warmer the water the more the suck up.

What ever goes up must come down. Now imagine all this rain contaminated with oil from the spill falling along the storms path, were talking about thousand of square miles of land becoming containmated with oil.

But then again I have been known to be wrong.

Anonymous said...

What toxic sludge is going to wash up? The same stuff that people are swimming in now? The plan is to save lives from flooding and tornadoes. That is still the immediate and most pressing danger during a storm.

How about a liitle GoJo?

Seriously the hornets nest of NoLa bloggers are all stirred up and stinging everything that moves including each other while the bear sneaks away with the honey.

Anonymous said...

"What if they require an evacuation from Pensacola to New Orleans?"

Uh, say what? Is there some reason to expect that the oil is going to expand the size of the storm surge by three or four orders of magnitude?

There have ALWAYS been evacuations ordered for ANYWHERE that's expecting to see storm surge for a given storm. Obviously there has never been an evac for anything even remotely resembling "Pensacola to New Orleans." The oil isn't going to change that.

Get a grip, AZ!

Jason Brad Berry said...

I got a grip, I'm simply asking if the oil + storm surge, is a factor in evacuation. Ivan carried a storm surge that spanned from N.O. to Houston...that's a very large expanse. I'm simply asking if the presence of the oil makes the storm surge a more dangerous factor. I don't see how that is an unreasonable question.

Varg said...

I talked to a guy the other day in Homeland Security and the good news is they are working on just such a scenario. The bad news is they are calling it "Oilmageddon."

jeffrey said...

I think you mean Ike, not Ivan.

Jason Brad Berry said...


Anonymous said...

to anon 1:

the s&wb has a pretty good handle on the purifying of river water. of course thats now, not if some tanker hauling recovered oil to a refinery starts leaking

to ashe:

is that right or have i bought into some b.s.

Anonymous said...

Shows over Man. Shows Over!


A dire report circulating in the Kremlin today that was prepared for Prime Minister Putin by Anatoly Sagalevich of Russia's Shirshov Institute of Oceanology warns that the Gulf of Mexico sea floor has been fractured “beyond all repair” and our World should begin preparing for an ecological disaster “beyond comprehension” unless “extraordinary measures” are undertaken to stop the massive flow of oil into our Planet’s eleventh largest body of water.

Jason Brad Berry said...

- Seriously the hornets nest of NoLa bloggers are all stirred up and stinging everything that moves including each other while the bear sneaks away with the honey.

I wasn't going to reply to that comment/methaphor because it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

But it's so nonsensical I have to ask. What do you mean by "the bear sneaks away with the honey"? Who exactly is your proverbial bear and what exactly is your proverbial honey? How does that comment even remotely relate to this post?

And for that matter, what blogs are stinging and who are we stinging? I"m calling out the HuffPo and WaPo for posting outrageous doomsday scenarios, but I didn't realize I was stinging anyone by asking the questions I asked in this post.

It's a clever little platitude but it makes absolutely no sense in respect to this post.

Jason Brad Berry said...

to ashe:

is that right or have i bought into some b.s.

you be righto.

Anonymous said...

Re: Ike "carried a storm surge that spanned from N.O. to Houston"

If Ike's storm surge reached either New Orleans or Houston, that's news to me. Obviously Galveston and some other outlying areas near Houston got plenty of surge, and IIRC maybe a few blocks of Mandeville and some low-lying coastal areas in between.

Certainly the oil would have a major impact on whether people would be back in Galveston right now.

But in terms of evacuation planning, I don't see why Ike + oil would have yeilded any different evacuation requirements than Ike actually did. If it's going to be wet, you need to leave - oil or no. Needless to say, the evac for Ike was nothing like "New Orleans to Houston."

mcbrid35 said...

to 9:15 AM anon:

Ike's surge reaching New Orleans should not be news. The lake was nearly six feet above normal when it hit:

Jason Brad Berry said...


Consider yourself newsified. There was a 4 to 6 foot surge as far east as Mobile, and it nailed Galveston. The storm surge was felt across every state in the Gulf.

Do you really not see why I'm asking these questions? I know areas in Slidell were flooded during Ike...large areas of South Louisiana to Galveston were flooded. Many of those areas were not evacuated, especially under a mandatory evacuation.

My question, to me, seems rather logical but apparently I'm the only one concerned about what effects an oil spill tidal surge have on populated areas. I guess we just shamwow it up and everything is ok?

Editilla~New Orleans Ladder said...

I don't mean to be rude, but the question of "will or not the oil gusher effect a Hurricane evac" is frankly ludicrous. This isn't even rhetorical toe-jam.
Of course millions of gallons of oil and chemical dispersant will effect what is arguably already a half-assed operation as mass evacuation.
When we start crashing into the equipment and personnel also evacuating a major direct hit, there will be many areas where Russell Honore would identify as "Rules to Break".

Ashe is posting Valuable Questions.
These questions need answers now, not when the oil encrusted shit is hitting the fan.

Furthermore, if you are unaware of how Ike' surge completely re-flooded South Louisiana WORSE than even Rita, how only the face of our Lady of Prompt Succor kept Gustav from coming over the walls, how Rita ripped BR to pieces, then I don't know what to do with you other than stand far away so when the Anvil of Stupid falls from the sky onto yo'head it won't suck me down into hell as well.

Mark Folse said...

Look up the effect of salt kills from hurricane. The hurricane of '38 it penetrated 30 to 40 miles inland.

Now thing of the definition of Force 10 on sea state: a giant froth of whatever is on the surface whipped up by the wind blowing around.

Then factor in your basic tidal surge.

This could be the last evacuation. And that's why I'm starting to think I'm not going.

Mojofearless said...

Mark Folse: I feel ya. I'm not going either. It's not bravado. It's not stupidity. It's my choice - to assess the risks, to weigh the options, to make a potentially fatal and lonely decision based more out of sentiment and stubbornness than rational self-presevation.
I guess what I'm saying (talking to you now, Dambala), is that I'm not going to evacuate, because I don't think they'll let me come back this time (or any of us), and my life won't really feel complete if I don't die here. I've always known that, and one of my worst fears is to die in an accident elsewhere - I want to take my last breath here. Sela. So potential permanent displacement is out of the question.

Sophmom said...

1. No going down with the ship, Folse.

2. Ike damn near displaced the whole GoM.

3. I've spent the last 5 years driving back and forth through Katrina's salt water intrusion, watching the life slowly return much farther inland than most would imagine. Heck, I've spent the last 6 years driving through Ivan's swath up the mouth of the Mobile River deep into Alabama. It's hard as hell to think about adding all that oil to the equations. Evacuation plans need to include contingencies for not going back anytime soon, which seems to me to be Dambala's point.